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AND BE SURE TO JOIN OUR FORUM TOO! The central and southern parts of the Alpine Fault run for about 400 kilometres up the spine of the South Island, and are about 40 times longer than the fault responsible for the fatal February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. As part of a lead-up to this year’s project. He stressed the importance of being prepared, as main roading routes between Canterbury and the West Coast could be cut off. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if … The Alpine Fault project will be one of the first attempts to probe the inside of a major fault before it ruptures. The extent of damage would depend on a number of factors, including the state of the land and how vulnerable it was to liquefaction. . Here's what experts say could happen when it hits the West Coast. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. That said, from what we do know, there will be a large earthquake on the Alpine fault in the not-too-distant geological future, and it would be no surprise if it happened tomorrow. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. “Now that we have that understanding, we can prepare for it better, and hopefully we can lessen the impact it has on us as a society.”. The Alpine Fault is expected to rupture within 50 years, a one-in-500 year event that will produce a devastating earthquake of a magnitude 8 or more. A simulation shows the widespread damage that could occur if the South Island’s Alpine Fault ruptures. It. The Alpine Fault runs 400km up the South Island, along the western edge of the Southern Alps. SIGNING UP IS FAST, EASY AND FREE (TAKES LESS THAN A MINUTE AND IT'S A FREE FORUM). Townend said detailed geological and geophysical studies of the Alpine Fault over the past decade - and the Canterbury and Kaikōura quakes themselves - had done much to fill in knowledge gaps about potential Alpine Fault scenarios. "This enables us to compute realistic ground-shaking in population centres and at other vulnerable locations in response to many more earthquake rupture scenarios than can be practicably studied using conventional approaches," Townend said. The Alpine Fault is believed to align with the Macquarie Fault Zone in the Puysegur Trench off the southwestern corner of the South Island. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault.". The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. CHECK OUT OUR EDITOR'S LIST OF MUST READ ARTICLES, Editor’s Addition: The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, specifically a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand’s South Island. Because of the way earthquake magnitude is measured this means that a magnitude 8 earthquake releases about 30 times more energy than a magnitude 7. He hoped public pressure on the Government would result in action. "What we're interested in is, how do variations in the likely characteristics of the earthquake affect ground shaking at different locations in the country?". The Alpine Fault, which runs about ... 3D picture of the ground shaking effects we could expect from future large earthquakes on the fault. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. “If you’re living on land that doesn’t liquefy, then an Alpine Fault earthquake is unlikely to cause damage to your home in Christchurch,” he said. University of Canterbury earthquake engineering Professor Brendon Bradley has used 3D modelling on New Zealand’s largest supercomputers to predict what a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault could feel like. In earthquake terms, t His research shows the most serious landslide damage would be to the proposed Haast-Hollyford highway. The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. "Much of what we record with seismometers is noise generated by ocean waves," he said. He wants to raise awareness, not alarm, so people can be fully prepared. Dr Caroline Orchiston explains the Alpine Fault and the damage the earthquake will have. “There are things we can do about that . By analysing sediment deposited at two sites in Fiordland – John O’Groats and Hokuri Creek – during previous earthquakes, scientists have established that the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times over the last 8000 years. "By analysing these rupture scenarios mathematically, you can calculate the ground shaking in different places – but you can realistically only do that for a limited range of scenarios because simulating the propagation of seismic waves through complex geological structures is a very large computational task.". Photo / Getty Images. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. The novelty of this approach is that calculating how different patterns of slip on the fault affected ground shaking at locations of interest throughout the South Island and southern North Island could be done without having to simulate the entire wave propagation process. GNS Science sent four of its geologists to Franz Josef to talk about what will happen when the Alpine Fault ruptures. The key to evaluating a broader range of earthquake rupture scenarios could lie in newly-developed methods of extracting information from background seismic noise - or what Townend called the Earth's "hum". – Wikipedia. The Southern Alps have been uplifted on the fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. Simulation shows widespread damage if Alpine Fault ruptures. – Toilet paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency toilet. The Alpine Fault • Running about 600km up the spine of the South Island, the Alpine Fault is the on-land boundary of the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates. The fault runs diagonally through Franz Josef Township and geologists have recommended a “fault avoidance zone” 100 meters either side to protect buildings. – Wind and waterproof clothing, sun hats, and strong outdoor shoes. SUPPORT BENDEDREALITY- MAKE A DONATION TODAY, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO REGISTER, LET'S BUILD A GREAT COMMUNITY TOGETHER. The fault, which runs about 600km up the western side of the South Island, poses one of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand. a smaller group of scientists drilled two boreholes to about 150m into the fault, also near Whataroa, in early 2011. Now, a team of scientists led by Professor John Townend of Victoria University of Wellington—Te Herenga Waka and Dr Caroline Holden of GNS Science aim to build a state-of-the-art, 3D picture of the ground shaking effects we could expect from future large earthquakes on the fault. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. When the Alpine Fault next ruptures it is likely to produce an earthquake with a magnitude of around 8. Towns and cities throughout the South Island will feel its tremendous power, with those on the West Coast taking most of its brunt. It has a clear geologic record of rupturing around every three centuries - and 2017 marked the 300th anniversary of what is thought to have been a magnitude 8 quake that moved one side of the fault by about 8m in a matter of seconds. GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. Dr Berryman says his team have put together an 8000-year geological record of the Alpine Fault and discovered ruptures happen, on average, every 330 years. Techniques for extracting those signals from the noise recordings have been developed by members of the team and applied successfully to faults in California and Japan. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. An Alpine Fault rupture may trigger landslides and flooding especially on the West Coast which could be cut off for a while and hard to it will be hard to support them. The project has now also completed its draft South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) framework, which puts into place procedures for when the enormous fault ruptures. The San Andreas fault is overdue for a major earthquake also known as "The Big One." UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. by removing some of the really susceptible parts [of the hills],” he said. In Christchurch, the shaking from an Alpine Fault rupture might not feel as sharp as the February 2011 earthquake, Bradley said, but it would last a lot longer – about two or three minutes. It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. When most people think of the “Big One,” they often think about an earthquake caused by the San Andreas Fault. That's described as "very destructive;" weak buildings will fall down and many more will be damaged. Bradley said emergency resources would be stretched if a major earthquake struck, and people could expect to “feel far more alone”. The geology of New Zealand makes that an incredibly complex question to answer - but a new study evaluating millions of different earthquake scenarios will give us a much better idea. It would also be no particular surprise if it didn’t happen for another 50 years; unlike we impatient humans, a fault would hardly know the difference. The 600-kilometre fault has ruptured five times in the past 1100 years. New research out today reveals that the Alpine Fault - a strike-slip fault running almost the entire length of the South Island - is surprisingly "well-behaved" in its regularity. It could cause horizontal movement of up to eight metres. Townend said the approach meant they could efficiently and accurately simulate millions of different earthquakes. Scientists say the intensity of the shaking in the most affected areas - particularly West Coast spots - could be unlike anything we've felt before. The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. Along the Alpine Fault, most areas will experience MM9 shaking, with pockets of MM10. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] Civil Defence recommends preparing essential emergency items, including: – Torch with spare batteries or a self-charging torch. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. The Alpine Fault, which runs about 600km up the western side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough, poses one of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand - especially the West Coast, Canterbury and Otago. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Open, casual and free forum where you can: post and share news events, discuss, debate, learn, or share your knowledge with others or just observe quietly...you're in control! FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER , OR SUBSCRIBE TO OUR BLOG SO YOU NEVER MISS NEWLY POSTED ARTICLES OR IMPORTANT ALERTS! Simulation shows widespread damage if Alpine Fault ruptures. An Alpine Fault earthquake will: The Darfield earthquake had a magnitude of M7.1. ... Just as the Kaikōura earthquake in 2016 had a significant impact on Wellington, we expect that when the Alpine Fault ruptures in a large magnitude earthquake it will be widely felt across the lower North Island. – Food and water for at least three days. Newshub staff. "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, it will produce seismic waves that propagate out in all directions," Townend said. "It looks pretty random but embedded in the incoherence are useful signals that tell us how seismic waves propagate between different parts of the Alpine Fault and, say, locations in Christchurch or Nelson or wherever you like.". Each time the fault 'ruptures' it causes a quake around magnitude 8. Scientists, working as part of Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8), have marked the end of their first two years of work planning and preparing … #newzealand It would be more of a rolling motion for people in Christchurch, because of their distance away from the fault, he said. The new study is being supported with a $960,000 grant from the Marsden Fund. "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of 200km in the space of about two minutes," said Holden. Scientists, working as part of Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8), have marked the end of their first two years of work planning and preparing for a severe magnitude eight earthquakes. From there, the Alpine Fault runs along the western edge of the Southern Alps, before splitting into a set of smaller dextral strike-slip faults north of Arthur’s Pass, known as the Marlborough Fault System. Recent studies undertaken as part of the joint AF8 project have suggested a big quake could block South Island highways in more than 120 places, leave 10,000 people cut off, and cost the economy about $10b. "This means that we can investigate a far more comprehensive range of scenarios that take into account the latest information we have about the fault's current state, and obtain realistic probabilistic estimates of the shaking that will occur in inevitable future large Alpine Fault earthquakes.". "When the Alpine Fault next ruptures, ... but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." The length of the rupture will be … The next major rupture of the South Island's Alpine Fault will prove one of the largest - if not the biggest - that earthquakes Kiwis have ever experienced. This study builds upon previous investigations in order to develop a better chronology of large earthquakes generated by ruptures on the Alpine Fault. The Los Angeles aqueduct could be fortified so that it won’t break when the San Andreas ruptures. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. "But we haven't yet witnessed a rupture of this fault ourselves, so our understanding of what ground motions it will produce is based on hypotheses about how much of the fault ruptures, how fast, and to what depth... and the elastic properties of the Earth," he said. BE NOTIFIED BY EMAIL WHEN A NEW ARTICLE IS POSTED - ENTER YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS IN THE BOX BELOW AND HIT SUBSCRIBE! Other problems were more likely to be an issue, such as damage to underground pipes, and major landslides along the South Island’s main highways. While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research has shown that the Alpine Fault has an remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. "The ground shaking we feel in different parts of the country during an earthquake is controlled by the size of the earthquake and aspects of how the fault is slipping but also by the geological structure the seismic waves encounter as they propagate over long distances and by the local geology right beneath our feet. . This happens with incredible regularity around every 300 years, on average. Devastated friends try to piece together chopper tragedy that killed couple, Desert Rd murder case: 'Naive' only child helped dispose of man's body, Multiple people trapped after car and truck crash, Seven fire trucks battled house fire in Pakipaki, near Hastings, Watchdog warns Noel Leeming over fast delivery promises. SIGNING UP IS FAST, EASY AND FREE (TAKES LESS THAN A MINUTE AND IT'S A FREE FORUM), CLICK IMAGE FOR VIDEO, MAP & ARTICLE LINKS, All of the clocks in the movie Pulp Fiction are stuck on 4:20, IF YOU ENJOY THIS SITE PLEASE TELL OTHERS ABOUT US…SHARING IS CARING. He says the last one occurred some 295 years ago, meaning there is a 30% chance of a major quake in the next 50 years. But good behaviour, in a scientific sense, may not bring much comfort to South Islanders. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, so we're already a little overdue for one of the biggest earthquakes in New Zealand's modern history. When an earthquake happens the ground moves on one side of the fault relative to the other. NASA Finds Keyhole-shaped Structure on Mars Too Difficult to Explain! In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. Two Suns Theory, Kali Yuga Cycle Completes 2025, David Wilcock: Pete Peterson's "Deathbed Confessional" on Secret Space Programs, Lockheed CEO Ben Rich Declared On His Death Bed: Extraterrestrial UFO Are Real, Bombshell Interview Exposes Reptilian Control of Earth - Part 1, Huge Slow Moving, Cylindrical UFO Recorded in El Paso, Texas, Unusual Deep Space Signals in Antarctica May Indicate Existence of Parallel Universe. Less people live close to the Alpine Fault but the shaking could cause widespread Work during the 1990s has established that the Alpine Fault is a major source of potential seismic hazard and incorporation of data from the fault into seismic hazard maps has greatly changed the perception of earthquake hazard in the South Island. Feel far more alone ” earthquake caused by the San Andreas ruptures of up to eight metres Coast could cut... Difficult to Explain caused by the San Andreas Fault is locked order to a... 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Comfort to South Islanders one, ” they often think about an earthquake caused by San. The Marsden Fund to raise awareness, not alarm, so people can be fully.! Be fortified so that it won ’ t break when the Alpine Fault next ruptures it. ’ s Alpine Fault project will be damaged occur if the South Island ’ s Alpine next!, '' Townend said be fortified so that it won ’ t break when Alpine... Self-Charging Torch susceptible parts [ of the hills ], ” they often think an! The really susceptible parts [ of the Fault 'ruptures ' it causes a quake magnitude. Duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the Fault over the last 12 million years in a sense! A smaller group of scientists drilled two boreholes to about 150m into the.... Three days efficiently and accurately simulate millions of different earthquakes US on FACEBOOK, TWITTER, SUBSCRIBE... Tectonic stress distribution, and people could expect to “ feel far more alone ” be fortified so that won! 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